Goldman Sachs Predicts 2026 as a Critical Breakthrough Year for the Global Nuclear Energy Industry, with Uranium Prices Set to Rise

Category： Company News

Time： 2026-01-30

Summary： In its December 2025 nuclear energy industry outlook report, Goldman Sachs predicts that 2026 will be a critical breakthrough year for the global nuclear energy industry. The U.S. government’s over $80 billion cooperation initiative is expected to drive the construction of large-scale nuclear reactors, with the first major Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) likely to be made in the first half of 2026.

In its December 2025 nuclear energy industry outlook report, Goldman Sachs predicts that 2026 will be a critical breakthrough year for the global nuclear energy industry. The U.S. government’s over $80 billion cooperation initiative is expected to drive the construction of large-scale nuclear reactors, with the first major Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) likely to be made in the first half of 2026. Additionally, the global cumulative uranium supply-demand gap is projected to widen to 1.914 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045, supporting a continued rise in uranium prices—with spot prices expected to reach $91 per pound by the end of 2026. Nuclear stocks outperformed the S&P 500 index by an average of 124% in 2025, and Goldman Sachs is particularly bullish on upstream uranium companies in 2026, while advising caution on small modular reactor (SMR) targets until customer contracts and cash flow visibility improve.
The U.S. government’s $80 billion nuclear energy cooperation agreement, announced in October 2025 with Cameco (CCJ), Westinghouse Electric and Brookfield (BAM), is a key driver of the industry’s growth. Its core goal is to activate the supply chain and reduce cost risks for the first batch of new nuclear projects. The Vogtle nuclear power project, the latest in the U.S., exceeded its budget by $17 billion, totaling $37 billion, leading utilities to adopt a cautious attitude toward new nuclear investments. The $80 billion will be disbursed through flexible mechanisms, including long-term raw material procurement advances and grants from the Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office (LPO), with specific details expected to be clarified in 2026.
Goldman Sachs expects the first major nuclear reactor FID in the U.S. in nearly 20 years to be made in the first half of 2026. Risk-averse utilities are likely to favor large-scale AP1000 projects, which have decades of operational data, over newer SMR technologies. However, if the government increases support for SMRs to mitigate risks, SMRs could also see FIDs in 2026—though it will be important to distinguish between commercial-scale deployments and demonstration projects, while monitoring the transparency of cash flow from deposits and other sources.
The uranium market is expected to see divergent trends in spot and long-term contract prices in 2026, driven by different factors. Spot prices will be more volatile, influenced by short-term shocks (such as production cuts, demand surges and purchases by trusts like Sprott) and arbitrage between spot and long-term prices. Long-term contracts, the main contracting channel for utilities, will reflect long-term supply and demand dynamics. Since August 2025, long-term contract prices have risen from $80 per pound to $86 per pound—a 17-year high—and Cameco has indicated that long-term contract prices range from $70 to $130 per pound, with a midpoint of about $100 per pound. Goldman Sachs’ model predicts that spot uranium prices (U3O8) will reach $91 per pound by the end of 2026, representing a 19.7% increase from the current $76 per pound.
The report also highlights key developments in the nuclear fuel supply chain for 2026, including capacity expansions by Urenco, Orano and U.S.-based UEC. Urenco’s New Mexico plant will add 700,000 SWU per year of capacity (with the first cascade operational in 2025), while Orano’s Georges Besse II enrichment plant expansion, costing $1.8 billion, will be completed in 2028, increasing capacity by 2.5 million SWU. Additionally, the global number of operational nuclear reactors is expected to reach 747 by 2045—an increase of 68 reactors (10% from previous forecasts)—with annual nuclear power generation rising to 718GW (11% increase), not including incremental capacity from power uprates of existing reactors. As the global energy transition accelerates, nuclear energy is poised to play an increasingly important role, with 2026 marking a pivotal year for industry growth and investment.

Keywords： Goldman Sachs Predicts 2026 as a Critical Breakthrough Year for the Global Nuclear Energy Industry, with Uranium Prices Set to Rise

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